Why AI Won't Kill Jobs or Prices
The dominant narrative around AI assumes two things: it will eliminate jobs, and it will be deflationary. Both may be backwards.
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thematic
thematic
The Price War Started. Good.
Last month I argued that infrastructure booms follow one pattern. The builders create the conditions. The adopters capture the gains. What triggers the handoff? Price wars begin when three conditions converge: capacity, interchangeability and buyer revolt. Own what absorbs the cheap input.
Read AnalysisBuilt to Burn
The AI deflation narrative may be correct. At some point. Between now and that payoff sits $1 trillion in annual spending, a set of supply bottlenecks with multi-year resolution timelines. The oil deal will take some pressure off energy costs. Two rate hikes in the next twelve months are a floor.
Read AnalysisAI and the Bent Curve
I watched a lecture by Chad Jones, an economist at Stanford, on AI and long-run economic growth. He opened with a simple chart: US income per person since 1870, plotted on a log scale. A straight line. ~2 percent annual growth for 150 years. Will AI enable that to continue or will it bend the curve?
Read AnalysisCAPE 42, Sentiment 44.
Leopold Aschenbrenner, the former OpenAI researcher whose "Situational Awareness" essay became required reading across institutional finance, entered into $8.46 billion in put notional. The true believer is hedging.
Read AnalysisWhy Technology Is Not Deflationary...
It was exactly 30 years ago when then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan became convinced that the 1990s technology boom would drive inflation lower. He was wrong. Fast forward to today. Kevin Warsh has a theory. AI will turbocharge productivity and drive inflation lower. I think he's half right.
Read AnalysisThe Companies That Treat AI as Infrastructure Win
“If the change outside your business is faster than the change inside your business, you’re going out of business. You just don’t know it yet.” – Jack Welch, 2000 Welch made that observation at the height of the first internet wave. Twenty-five years later, the same clock is running.
Read AnalysisThe Disappearing Rung
I used to manage a team of highly skilled researchers. When someone recently asked what size team I would need to rebuild that capability today, I said: none. Not a smaller team. Not a leaner one. None. Because of agentic AI. That is not creative destruction. That is creative substitution.
Read AnalysisLongevity: Demographic Imperative Meets the AI Multiplier
The United States is undergoing a demographic transformation without historical precedent. In 2024, Americans aged 65 and older numbered 61.2 million, a 13% increase since 2020. Eleven states now have more older adults than children, up from just three in 2020.
Read AnalysisStrait of Hormuz Closure: Duration Matters
In this paper we look at the mechanics of Hormuz disruption and assess the true scope of economic vulnerability. Far from a footnote, but not necessarily an apocalyptic scenario either. The critical variable is duration.
Read AnalysisBuilding to the 9’s: An Emerging Two-Tier Power Market
The carbon-free electricity (CFE) market is splitting into two tiers: intermittent power priced as a commodity, and firm baseload commanding luxury premiums. Investors who recognize this bifurcation early will capture asymmetric returns.
Read AnalysisThe Invisible Tax: How Oil Prices Flow Through to Inflation and Growth
Here's a number most people understand: oil accounts for roughly 3-4% of global GDP in direct expenditure. But that's wildly misleading. The indirect footprint? Closer to 15-20% when you count transportation, manufacturing feedstocks, agricultural inputs, and heating.
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