I watched a lecture by Chad Jones, an economist at Stanford, on AI and long-run economic growth. He opened with a simple chart: US income per person since 1870, plotted on a log scale. A straight line. ~2 percent annual growth for 150 years. Will AI enable that to continue or will it bend the curve?
Read AnalysisLeopold Aschenbrenner, the former OpenAI researcher whose "Situational Awareness" essay became required reading across institutional finance, entered into $8.46 billion in put notional. The true believer is hedging.
Read AnalysisIt was exactly 30 years ago when then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan became convinced that the 1990s technology boom would drive inflation lower. He was wrong. Fast forward to today. Kevin Warsh has a theory. AI will turbocharge productivity and drive inflation lower. I think he's half right.
Read Analysis“If the change outside your business is faster than the change inside your business, you’re going out of business. You just don’t know it yet.” – Jack Welch, 2000 Welch made that observation at the height of the first internet wave. Twenty-five years later, the same clock is running.
Read AnalysisI used to manage a team of highly skilled researchers. When someone recently asked what size team I would need to rebuild that capability today, I said: none. Not a smaller team. Not a leaner one. None. Because of agentic AI. That is not creative destruction. That is creative substitution.
Read AnalysisThe United States is undergoing a demographic transformation without historical precedent. In 2024, Americans aged 65 and older numbered 61.2 million, a 13% increase since 2020. Eleven states now have more older adults than children, up from just three in 2020.
Read AnalysisIn this paper we look at the mechanics of Hormuz disruption and assess the true scope of economic vulnerability. Far from a footnote, but not necessarily an apocalyptic scenario either. The critical variable is duration.
Read AnalysisThe carbon-free electricity (CFE) market is splitting into two tiers: intermittent power priced as a commodity, and firm baseload commanding luxury premiums. Investors who recognize this bifurcation early will capture asymmetric returns.
Read AnalysisHere's a number most people understand: oil accounts for roughly 3-4% of global GDP in direct expenditure. But that's wildly misleading. The indirect footprint? Closer to 15-20% when you count transportation, manufacturing feedstocks, agricultural inputs, and heating.
Read AnalysisLayoffs in the tech sector are piling up at the same time hiring stalled. Soon the Unemployment Rate will back up. The question is: how many job losses can the US Economy withstand. What follows is a first principals explainer of the Sahm Indicator.
Read Analysis