In this paper we look at the mechanics of Hormuz disruption and assess the true scope of economic vulnerability. Far from a footnote, but not necessarily an apocalyptic scenario either. The critical variable is duration.
Read AnalysisThe carbon-free electricity (CFE) market is splitting into two tiers: intermittent power priced as a commodity, and firm baseload commanding luxury premiums. Investors who recognize this bifurcation early will capture asymmetric returns.
Read AnalysisHere's a number most people understand: oil accounts for roughly 3-4% of global GDP in direct expenditure. But that's wildly misleading. The indirect footprint? Closer to 15-20% when you count transportation, manufacturing feedstocks, agricultural inputs, and heating.
Read AnalysisLayoffs in the tech sector are piling up at the same time hiring stalled. Soon the Unemployment Rate will back up. The question is: how many job losses can the US Economy withstand. What follows is a first principals explainer of the Sahm Indicator.
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