Methodology

If it can't be invested, it's just noise.

The starting point for every view is a simple assumption: consensus is probably wrong. Not always, and not out of contrarianism, but markets price the consensus, so the only way to generate insight is to identify where the crowd has it right and where it doesn't. Every analysis begins with a clear position: are we above or below consensus on earnings, on rates, on the cycle? That discipline, applied consistently across public and private markets, is what separates a framework from an opinion.

The methodology is top-down, data-driven, and deliberately dispassionate. The focus is on the two variables that drive everything else: interest rates and corporate profits. Views are built on a 12-to-18 month horizon, long enough to let a thesis develop, short enough to stay actionable. The research draws on three decades of experience allocating across liquid and illiquid markets, from the trading desks at Merrill Lynch to the alternatives platform at Blackstone.