allocation

Why AI Won't Kill Jobs or Prices

The dominant narrative around AI assumes two things: it will eliminate jobs, and it will be deflationary. Both may be backwards.

Positioning for the Overheat

The economy is not late. It is hot. On the Investment Clock the hand sits in the overheat quadrant, where growth runs solid and inflation runs right alongside it. That combination decides how capital gets deployed in the second half.

What to Expect When You Are Expecting (The Sequel)

Two years ago I published a note on interest rate cuts titled “What to Expect When You Are Expecting.” Today the script flips. The Fed is preparing to hike. What follows is a study.

The Price of Patience

I started the year expecting rates to drift higher and I continue to set my true north at 4.5%. This presents fundamental challenges to the Fed’s ability cut rates. I ran two studies to answer this question of what this means for private and public markets.

That 70s Show

For a long time, the market had a simple narrative all sketched out for Federal Reserve policy. Inflation cools, employment stabilizes, and the Fed delivers a steady cadence of rate cuts. But linear policy requires a linear world. But a structural oil shock... that upends how we will invest.

The Model Byron Wien Kept Under His Pillow

Byron used to joke that he kept it under his pillow. First thing every morning, he’d take a look. Not a complex options model. Not some proprietary algorithm. Just a simple dividend discount calculation that’s been around since 1959. I keep coming back to this tool because it works.

The US and India: Two Countries to Overweight in a Decade of Skepticism

The question is not whether the US or India will outperform over the next decade. The question is whether allocators will recognize it while the consensus is still skeptical.

An Allocator's Roadmap to Volatility

Major markets are down between 5-10% from their highs. VIX is north of 25. Cash feels safe. In volatile markets, it feels like wisdom. Sitting in cash, you tell yourself you are being prudent. You are waiting for clarity. There is a cost. And it compounds over time.

PRIVATE CREDIT UNDER STRESS

Private credit is not in crisis. But it is no longer invincible. The asset class built its reputation on a simple proposition: lend to middle-market companies, hold to maturity, avoid the noise of public markets. Then came 2025, and a reckoning.

The Death of Diversification: Assets That Still Hedge Your Portfolio

Oil has spiked past $100. The 10-year Treasury yield has pushed above 4.25%. Stocks are volatile. That bond allocation? It is not providing the cushion it once did. Not reliably. Not when you need it most.

The Efficient Frontier

Blending public and privates can improve both risk and return

Beyond the 60/40