History has a consistent verdict on infrastructure booms: the builders create the conditions, and the adopters capture the gains. The pattern across every major infrastructure cycle is the same. We nearing the transition point between those two phases.
Read AnalysisThe April CPI confirms what forward indicators have signaled for months: inflation is re-accelerating, not fading. The oil price transmission mechanism continues to be a big inflation risk as the year unfolds. And the Fed may already be behind the curve.
Read AnalysisWhat's really happening to the generation entering the workforce for the first time? The standard narrative is straightforward: AI is displacing young workers, and that's a problem. Here's what the standard narrative misses.
Read AnalysisNon-recessionary Federal Reserve cutting cycles are often interrupted. Something always breaks the pattern: an oil shock, an inflation scare, a geopolitical event. The market and sector implications differ materially from full hike cycles.
Read AnalysisWith headline inflation reaccelerating and core holding above target, Powell cannot risk the mistake of appearing complacent. We believe the Fed will pivot to hikes by late Q2, not cuts. Position for a world where capital has a cost again.
Read AnalysisAfter a modestly negative first quarter, I’ve had a number of conversations with investors about whether this is a market to trade or simply sit through. The instinct is understandable. History rewards those who remain calm when others do not.
Read AnalysisStrong jobs number on the surface. However we know the revisions have been to the downside (i.e. February was revised lower) and the mix of jobs was dominated by hiring in non-economically sensitive sectors of the economy. Despite that, there remains a case to buy the dips.
Read AnalysisQ1 2026 is officially in the books. Headlines are dominated by a wall of worry: Iran, sticky inflation metrics, and disruptions across credit markets. The prevailing consensus has shifted heavily defensive. We believe this is a tactical mistake.
Read AnalysisCorrections feel unique in the moment. They never are. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has experienced 14 corrections of 10% or more. In the twelve months following each trough, the index posted positive returns 93% of the time. The average recovery: +29.7%.
Read AnalysisThe Federal Reserve has committed an error of historic proportions. Between August 2023 and January 2026, the FOMC executed 175 basis points of rate cuts, driving the funds rate from 5.50% to 3.75%. And now it is accelerating. This is not what policy makers expected...
Read AnalysisMarkets are uncomfortable. Oil has moved. Inflation has re-accelerated. A Fed that spent the better part of 2025 cutting rates is now debating whether to reverse course. I remain constructive, but the easy part of the cycle is behind us.
Read AnalysisMotel 6 is famous for saying “we’ll leave a light on for you”. Lights on are welcoming, but they also send an important economic signal. Electricity is the most honest variable in economics. US electricity demand is now growing. This is not an AI bubble narrative.
Read Analysis