Saturday's Wall Street Journal said everything we need to know: a story about how Americans are keeping their cars for nearly 13 years, at the bottom an article about restaurants charging $40 for half a rotisserie chicken. These two stories are not contradictions... its where we are.
Read AnalysisLeopold Aschenbrenner, the former OpenAI researcher whose "Situational Awareness" essay became required reading across institutional finance, entered into $8.46 billion in put notional. The true believer is hedging.
Read AnalysisThe April PCE report confirms what the many already suspect: inflation is not retreating. Headline PCE rose to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023. When inflation persists at these levels for half a year, it stops being transitory. But I'm optimistic that the economy keeps growing.
Read AnalysisThe market has re-found its footing, and the bulls have the ball right now. While the cyclical backdrop remains constructive, the arithmetic of valuation tells a different story for medium to long-term investors.
Read AnalysisThe last couple of weeks were a reminder of something the market learned painfully in 2022: the stock-bond relationship is not as reliable as you think. This is not a new observation. But knowing something and actually feeling it in a portfolio are two different things.
Read AnalysisIncoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may want to begin with patience. The harder question is whether the Federal Reserve he inherits will allow it. Sticky inflation, market repricing, and internal dissent force him to validate a hike bias even if his instinct is to hold steady.
Read AnalysisHistory has a consistent verdict on infrastructure booms: the builders create the conditions, and the adopters capture the gains. The pattern across every major infrastructure cycle is the same. We nearing the transition point between those two phases.
Read AnalysisThe April CPI confirms what forward indicators have signaled for months: inflation is re-accelerating, not fading. The oil price transmission mechanism continues to be a big inflation risk as the year unfolds. And the Fed may already be behind the curve.
Read AnalysisWhat's really happening to the generation entering the workforce for the first time? The standard narrative is straightforward: AI is displacing young workers, and that's a problem. Here's what the standard narrative misses.
Read AnalysisNon-recessionary Federal Reserve cutting cycles are often interrupted. Something always breaks the pattern: an oil shock, an inflation scare, a geopolitical event. The market and sector implications differ materially from full hike cycles.
Read AnalysisWith headline inflation reaccelerating and core holding above target, Powell cannot risk the mistake of appearing complacent. We believe the Fed will pivot to hikes by late Q2, not cuts. Position for a world where capital has a cost again.
Read AnalysisAfter a modestly negative first quarter, I’ve had a number of conversations with investors about whether this is a market to trade or simply sit through. The instinct is understandable. History rewards those who remain calm when others do not.
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