We are in a historic buildout of AI, and I think this goes the way of every other revolutionary advance. Boom, then bust. This time is not different. Phase One gets the headlines. Phase Two gets the compounding.
Read AnalysisYields going higher? Whoever is short here is not simply betting against a market. They are betting against a buyer who shows up every month with $4 billion, has said in public that he is willing to buy more, and writes the issuance calendar besides.
Read AnalysisThe Fed has two meetings left before the November election. Hike odds have been sliding after two soft inflation prints. So the question is whether the calendar itself has ever mattered. Does the Fed pull its punches before voters show up?
Read AnalysisThe backward-looking inflation data is good. The forward-looking picture is more complicated. 3 things sit between the print we just got and the all-clear: oil, household wealth, and a tight labor market. I remain in the hike camp for September.
Read AnalysisThe price war developing in AI is not about price. A price war can be reversed; a download cannot. Publishing weights is different than cutting price; the weights are the model. Own the compute, not the models.
Read AnalysisReflexivity: the idea that a policy action can change the fundamental it is acting on, in the direction that reinforces itself. The Fed is running that experiment right now: four years of tightening keep failing to tighten anything for the households driving inflation.
Read AnalysisI keep coming back to one line in Delta's Q2 2026 earnings. For the first time in the airline's history, premium ticket revenue exceeded main cabin revenue. Not marginally. That is why services inflation will not behave... rate hikes don't impact this group.
Read AnalysisThe market exhaled this week. Consumer prices fell Tuesday, producer prices fell Wednesday, and the relief was immediate. The bet on a July rate hike, which stood at 42% on Monday, collapsed. I would not join the celebration. The resting heartrate to inflation is higher.
Read AnalysisThe economy is not late. It is hot. On the Investment Clock the hand sits in the overheat quadrant, where growth runs solid and inflation runs right alongside it. That combination decides how capital gets deployed in the second half.
Read AnalysisFind some shaded hug some people you like; explode something responsibly. Happy Fourth.
Read AnalysisQ2 earnings season kicks off in two weeks. Here's what's unusual: analysts have been raising estimates into quarter-end. This earnings cycle is accelerating as it ages
Read AnalysisEveryone is spilling ink on how Kevin Warsh just blew up thirty years of Fed communication. If I am being honest, though, the part everyone is missing is simpler: that guidance was only ever as good as the forecasts behind it, and the forecasts were not good. Its the underlying data that matters.
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