CAPE 42, Sentiment 44.
Leopold Aschenbrenner, the former OpenAI researcher whose "Situational Awareness" essay became required reading across institutional finance, entered into $8.46 billion in put notional. The true believer is hedging.
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macro & strategy
Members
May 28, 2026
Persistent Inflation and the Bifurcated Economy
The April PCE report confirms what the many already suspect: inflation is not retreating. Headline PCE rose to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023. When inflation persists at these levels for half a year, it stops being transitory. But I'm optimistic that the economy keeps growing.
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macro & strategy
Members
May 26, 2026
Cyclical Bull, Secular Realist
The market has re-found its footing, and the bulls have the ball right now. While the cyclical backdrop remains constructive, the arithmetic of valuation tells a different story for medium to long-term investors.
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macro & strategy
Members
May 21, 2026
The Relationship You Thought You Could Count On
The last couple of weeks were a reminder of something the market learned painfully in 2022: the stock-bond relationship is not as reliable as you think. This is not a new observation. But knowing something and actually feeling it in a portfolio are two different things.
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