You Cannot Torrent a Token
The price war developing in AI is not about price. A price war can be reversed; a download cannot. Publishing weights is different than cutting price; the weights are the model. Own the compute, not the models.
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macro & strategy
Members
Aug 18, 2026
I Looked for Politics in the Fed’s Election-Year Record. It Does Not Show Up in the Dates.
The Fed has two meetings left before the November election. Hike odds have been sliding after two soft inflation prints. So the question is whether the calendar itself has ever mattered. Does the Fed pull its punches before voters show up?
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macro & strategy
Members
Aug 13, 2026
The Backward-Looking View is Good
The backward-looking inflation data is good. The forward-looking picture is more complicated. 3 things sit between the print we just got and the all-clear: oil, household wealth, and a tight labor market. I remain in the hike camp for September.
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macro & strategy
Members
Jul 30, 2026
The Raise
Reflexivity: the idea that a policy action can change the fundamental it is acting on, in the direction that reinforces itself. The Fed is running that experiment right now: four years of tightening keep failing to tighten anything for the households driving inflation.
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