The Producer Price Index surged 0.7% MoM in February, blowing past consensus expectations and marking the largest monthly increase since August 2023. This could not have come at a worse time for the Fed, the economy or the markets.
Read AnalysisThe compelling story of 2026 is everyone assumes the Fed will blink. They are wrong. My base case: No rate cuts in 2026. Core inflation remains sticky at 2.8-3.5%. Unemployment rises to 4.6%, triggering traditional Recession warnings. The Fed holds through political pressure and market tantrums.
Read AnalysisIn September 2026, a private equity firm will close on a company that has no office, no water cooler, and no HR department to speak of. Fifteen people will generate $20 million in revenue and $6 million in profit. Meet AI Agents...
Read AnalysisThe market is pricing a September Fed cut. We think cuts arrive December at earliest, more likely Q1 2027. The combination of sticky core services ex-shelter (2.9% YoY, 3.8% 3-month annualized) and a 41% oil spike creates a credibility trap the Powell Fed will not walk into again.
Read AnalysisSupply and demand are no longer correlated. They are opposed.
Read AnalysisThe February employment report landed like a gut punch this morning. The headline number bears no resemblance to the modest growth narrative markets had priced and a world away from any whisper of resilient labor demand. This is not a soft landing. This is the floor giving way.
Read AnalysisThe Strait of Hormuz closed on March 3, removing 15 million barrels per day—roughly 14% of global supply... the largest single supply disruption in half a century. Headline inflation will likely face upward pressure through Q3 2026 even if core remains sticky at 3%.
Read AnalysisThe January Consumer Confidence uptick signals a mid-cycle recovery consistent with 1995 and 2019 Fed pause analogues, but the divergence between rising sentiment and flat spending creates a fragile equilibrium.
Read AnalysisPrior to QE, the 10YR UST traded at or above nominal GDP 71% of the time. Post QE, it rarely went above nominal GDP. There is a case for the 10YR to again trade at or above nominal GDP again.
Read AnalysisCore CPI holds steady while Headline CPI was dragged down by falling energy
Read AnalysisJobs that never were... the weak January print (!)... and a Fed that's stuck.
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