Strong jobs number on the surface. However we know the revisions have been to the downside (i.e. February was revised lower) and the mix of jobs was dominated by hiring in non-economically sensitive sectors of the economy. Despite that, there remains a case to buy the dips.
Read AnalysisQ1 2026 is officially in the books. Headlines are dominated by a wall of worry: Iran, sticky inflation metrics, and disruptions across credit markets. The prevailing consensus has shifted heavily defensive. We believe this is a tactical mistake.
Read AnalysisCorrections feel unique in the moment. They never are. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has experienced 14 corrections of 10% or more. In the twelve months following each trough, the index posted positive returns 93% of the time. The average recovery: +29.7%.
Read AnalysisThe Federal Reserve has committed an error of historic proportions. Between August 2023 and January 2026, the FOMC executed 175 basis points of rate cuts, driving the funds rate from 5.50% to 3.75%. And now it is accelerating. This is not what policy makers expected...
Read AnalysisMarkets are uncomfortable. Oil has moved. Inflation has re-accelerated. A Fed that spent the better part of 2025 cutting rates is now debating whether to reverse course. I remain constructive, but the easy part of the cycle is behind us.
Read AnalysisMotel 6 is famous for saying “we’ll leave a light on for you”. Lights on are welcoming, but they also send an important economic signal. Electricity is the most honest variable in economics. US electricity demand is now growing. This is not an AI bubble narrative.
Read AnalysisThe Producer Price Index surged 0.7% MoM in February, blowing past consensus expectations and marking the largest monthly increase since August 2023. This could not have come at a worse time for the Fed, the economy or the markets.
Read AnalysisThe compelling story of 2026 is everyone assumes the Fed will blink. They are wrong. My base case: No rate cuts in 2026. Core inflation remains sticky at 2.8-3.5%. Unemployment rises to 4.6%, triggering traditional Recession warnings. The Fed holds through political pressure and market tantrums.
Read AnalysisIn September 2026, a private equity firm will close on a company that has no office, no water cooler, and no HR department to speak of. Fifteen people will generate $20 million in revenue and $6 million in profit. Meet AI Agents...
Read AnalysisThe market is pricing a September Fed cut. We think cuts arrive December at earliest, more likely Q1 2027. The combination of sticky core services ex-shelter (2.9% YoY, 3.8% 3-month annualized) and a 41% oil spike creates a credibility trap the Powell Fed will not walk into again.
Read AnalysisSupply and demand are no longer correlated. They are opposed.
Read AnalysisThe February employment report landed like a gut punch this morning. The headline number bears no resemblance to the modest growth narrative markets had priced and a world away from any whisper of resilient labor demand. This is not a soft landing. This is the floor giving way.
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