The Man Who Wrote The Book
We are in a historic buildout of AI, and I think this goes the way of every other revolutionary advance. Boom, then bust. This time is not different. Phase One gets the headlines. Phase Two gets the compounding.
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macro & strategy
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Aug 25, 2026
Don't Fight The Treasury
Yields going higher? Whoever is short here is not simply betting against a market. They are betting against a buyer who shows up every month with $4 billion, has said in public that he is willing to buy more, and writes the issuance calendar besides.
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macro & strategy
Members
Aug 18, 2026
I Looked for Politics in the Fed’s Election-Year Record. It Does Not Show Up in the Dates.
The Fed has two meetings left before the November election. Hike odds have been sliding after two soft inflation prints. So the question is whether the calendar itself has ever mattered. Does the Fed pull its punches before voters show up?
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macro & strategy
Members
Aug 13, 2026
The Backward-Looking View is Good
The backward-looking inflation data is good. The forward-looking picture is more complicated. 3 things sit between the print we just got and the all-clear: oil, household wealth, and a tight labor market. I remain in the hike camp for September.
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