Hotter For Longer
Inflation stays hotter for longer. The economy stays stronger for longer. Those are unfolding simultaneously, and it's going to take more than one more hike from here to change that. Own inflation assets.
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macro & strategy
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Sep 15, 2026
What Got You Here
Three years ago I published “What Got Us Here Won't Get Us There” to describe how a rising 10-year treasury yield would fundamentally alter the way we think about returns. Today's environment may not have a direction; it might just churn. That challenges yet again what we think about investing.
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macro & strategy
Members
Sep 10, 2026
The Curve Flattens From Both Ends
Diesel prices rose 24.1% in August. That single line explains more than a third of the entire increase in final demand goods, and energy explains over three-fourths of the 1.1% rise. Both hands of the government are on the same curve, pulling opposite ways. That is a flattener.
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macro & strategy
Members
Aug 27, 2026
The Man Who Wrote The Book
We are in a historic buildout of AI, and I think this goes the way of every other revolutionary advance. Boom, then bust. This time is not different. Phase One gets the headlines. Phase Two gets the compounding.
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