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macro & strategy Members 4 min read

The Backward-Looking View is Good

The backward-looking inflation data is good. The forward-looking picture is more complicated. 3 things sit between the print we just got and the all-clear: oil, household wealth, and a tight labor market. I remain in the hike camp for September.

August 13, 2026 by Joe Zidle

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macro & strategy Members Aug 18, 2026

I Looked for Politics in the Fed’s Election-Year Record. It Does Not Show Up in the Dates.

The Fed has two meetings left before the November election. Hike odds have been sliding after two soft inflation prints. So the question is whether the calendar itself has ever mattered. Does the Fed pull its punches before voters show up?

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macro & strategy Members Aug 4, 2026

You Cannot Torrent a Token

The price war developing in AI is not about price. A price war can be reversed; a download cannot. Publishing weights is different than cutting price; the weights are the model. Own the compute, not the models.

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macro & strategy Members Jul 30, 2026

The Raise

Reflexivity: the idea that a policy action can change the fundamental it is acting on, in the direction that reinforces itself. The Fed is running that experiment right now: four years of tightening keep failing to tighten anything for the households driving inflation.

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ZidleMSG is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fiduciary. All content is independent macroeconomic research and commentary, published for informational purposes only. Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or investment product. ZidleMSG does not manage assets, execute transactions, or provide personalized investment advice. Advisory engagements are limited to macroeconomic research and commentary and do not constitute an investment advisory relationship under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decision. © Zidle Macro Strategy Group. All rights reserved.

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