What to Expect When You Are Expecting (The Sequel)
Two years ago I published a note on interest rate cuts titled “What to Expect When You Are Expecting.” Today the script flips. The Fed is preparing to hike. What follows is a study.
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Members
Jul 14, 2026
Why AI Won't Kill Jobs or Prices
The dominant narrative around AI assumes two things: it will eliminate jobs, and it will be deflationary. Both may be backwards.
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Members
Jul 9, 2026
Positioning for the Overheat
The economy is not late. It is hot. On the Investment Clock the hand sits in the overheat quadrant, where growth runs solid and inflation runs right alongside it. That combination decides how capital gets deployed in the second half.
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May 5, 2026
The Price of Patience
I started the year expecting rates to drift higher and I continue to set my true north at 4.5%. This presents fundamental challenges to the Fed’s ability cut rates. I ran two studies to answer this question of what this means for private and public markets.
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