The Dornbusch Moment
Supply and demand are no longer correlated. They are opposed.
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macro & strategy
macro & strategy
STAGFLATION WATCH: The Data Just Got Worse
The February employment report landed like a gut punch this morning. The headline number bears no resemblance to the modest growth narrative markets had priced and a world away from any whisper of resilient labor demand. This is not a soft landing. This is the floor giving way.
Read AnalysisThe $80 Trap: When the Fed Can't Save You
The Strait of Hormuz closed on March 3, removing 15 million barrels per day—roughly 14% of global supply... the largest single supply disruption in half a century. Headline inflation will likely face upward pressure through Q3 2026 even if core remains sticky at 3%.
Read AnalysisConsumer Confidence
The January Consumer Confidence uptick signals a mid-cycle recovery consistent with 1995 and 2019 Fed pause analogues, but the divergence between rising sentiment and flat spending creates a fragile equilibrium.
Read Analysis10YR UST vs Nominal GDP
Prior to QE, the 10YR UST traded at or above nominal GDP 71% of the time. Post QE, it rarely went above nominal GDP. There is a case for the 10YR to again trade at or above nominal GDP again.
Read AnalysisProgress // No progress
Core CPI holds steady while Headline CPI was dragged down by falling energy
Read AnalysisRewriting the story
Jobs that never were... the weak January print (!)... and a Fed that's stuck.
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