Core CPI holds steady while Headline CPI was dragged down by falling energy
Progress // No progress
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macro & strategy
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Jun 9, 2026
The $40 Chicken vs. the 13-Year-Old Car
Saturday's Wall Street Journal said everything we need to know: a story about how Americans are keeping their cars for nearly 13 years, at the bottom an article about restaurants charging $40 for half a rotisserie chicken. These two stories are not contradictions... its where we are.
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macro & strategy
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Jun 2, 2026
CAPE 42, Sentiment 44.
Leopold Aschenbrenner, the former OpenAI researcher whose "Situational Awareness" essay became required reading across institutional finance, entered into $8.46 billion in put notional. The true believer is hedging.
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macro & strategy
Members
May 28, 2026
Persistent Inflation and the Bifurcated Economy
The April PCE report confirms what the many already suspect: inflation is not retreating. Headline PCE rose to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023. When inflation persists at these levels for half a year, it stops being transitory. But I'm optimistic that the economy keeps growing.
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