Macro, asset allocation, and alternative investment research from a former Blackstone Chief Investment Strategist — delivered with the clarity your portfolio decisions demand.
Clarity in a market of noise.
The Strait of Hormuz closed on March 3, removing 15 million barrels per day—roughly 14% of global supply... the largest single supply disruption in half a century. Headline inflation will likely face upward pressure through Q3 2026 even if core remains sticky at 3%.
Read AnalysisLayoffs in the tech sector are piling up at the same time hiring stalled. Soon the Unemployment Rate will back up. The question is: how many job losses can the US Economy withstand. What follows is a first principals explainer of the Sahm Indicator.
Read AnalysisThe January Consumer Confidence uptick signals a mid-cycle recovery consistent with 1995 and 2019 Fed pause analogues, but the divergence between rising sentiment and flat spending creates a fragile equilibrium.
Read AnalysisBlending public and privates can improve both risk and return
Read AnalysisEvery market cycle develops its own narrative. The prevailing story of 2021-2024 held that inflation was entrenched, that the Fed had fallen behind the curve, and that the bond vigilantes were back, we were told.
Read AnalysisThe classic Dividend Discount Model and "What-if" analysis. The market isn't cheap...
Read AnalysisPrior to QE, the 10YR UST traded at or above nominal GDP 71% of the time. Post QE, it rarely went above nominal GDP. There is a case for the 10YR to again trade at or above nominal GDP again.
Read AnalysisBuilding a Portfolio for the 2026 Reality
Read AnalysisCore CPI holds steady while Headline CPI was dragged down by falling energy
Read AnalysisEvery economic recovery follows the same script: inflation surges, the Fed tightens, and then everyone waits for inflation to fall back to normal. We're still waiting.
Read AnalysisEvery housing cycle ends the same way: prices climb until nobody can afford them, sales dry up, and the market freezes. We're not quite there yet, but January's numbers suggest we're getting close.
Read AnalysisFor the last 30 years, Joe Zidle has served as a top strategist for some of the world's largest financial institutions. Most recently, he spent nearly eight years as Chief Investment Strategist at Blackstone, where he was responsible for thematic research, asset allocation, and communicating the firm's macro views to a global audience.
Prior to Blackstone, Joe was a portfolio strategist at Richard Bernstein Advisors and spent a decade at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, rising to Head of Investment Strategy for Global Wealth Management.
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