The Strait of Hormuz closed on March 3, removing 15 million barrels per day—roughly 14% of global supply... the largest single supply disruption in half a century. Headline inflation will likely face upward pressure through Q3 2026 even if core remains sticky at 3%.
Read AnalysisThe January Consumer Confidence uptick signals a mid-cycle recovery consistent with 1995 and 2019 Fed pause analogues, but the divergence between rising sentiment and flat spending creates a fragile equilibrium.
Read AnalysisPrior to QE, the 10YR UST traded at or above nominal GDP 71% of the time. Post QE, it rarely went above nominal GDP. There is a case for the 10YR to again trade at or above nominal GDP again.
Read AnalysisCore CPI holds steady while Headline CPI was dragged down by falling energy
Read AnalysisJobs that never were... the weak January print (!)... and a Fed that's stuck.
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