Core CPI holds steady while Headline CPI was dragged down by falling energy
Progress // No progress
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macro
Free
Mar 4, 2026
The $80 Trap: When the Fed Can't Save You
The Strait of Hormuz closed on March 3, removing 15 million barrels per day—roughly 14% of global supply... the largest single supply disruption in half a century. Headline inflation will likely face upward pressure through Q3 2026 even if core remains sticky at 3%.
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macro
Free
Feb 24, 2026
Consumer Confidence
The January Consumer Confidence uptick signals a mid-cycle recovery consistent with 1995 and 2019 Fed pause analogues, but the divergence between rising sentiment and flat spending creates a fragile equilibrium.
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macro
Free
Feb 17, 2026
10YR UST vs Nominal GDP
Prior to QE, the 10YR UST traded at or above nominal GDP 71% of the time. Post QE, it rarely went above nominal GDP. There is a case for the 10YR to again trade at or above nominal GDP again.
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